UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun Main Event Analysis
Lyoto Machida Defends the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Oct 4, 2009
Lyoto Machida (15 wins – 0 Losses) meets Maurico ‘Shogun’ Rua (18 wins – 3 Losses) to defend his UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. Machida who blends a traditional Karate background with a fluency in MMA will test his unique style against the Muay Thai/Brazilian Jiu – Jitsu mix of Shogun.
Styles Make Fights
Shogun tore through competition in Japan winning the Pride Fighting Championship’s 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix. Hailing from the Chute Boxe Academy which is known for producing fighters capable of unleashing ruthless onslaughts, he has 15 career knockouts over notable fighters such as Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson, Alistair Overeem, Ricardo Arona, and Chuck Liddell. However, he has looked lackluster in the UFC, losing to Forrest Griffen, while defeating aging fighters such as Mark Coleman and Liddell. Two knee surgeries have affected his training, and his conditioning has also suffered as a result.
Lyoto ‘the Dragon’ Machida brings his unblemished record to the ring after defeating Rashad Evans to secure the Light Heavyweight belt. He has notable wins over Tito Ortiz, Rick Franklin, BJ Penn, and Thiago Silva. Machida’s base may be Karate, but he has also spent considerable time training in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu along with Greco-Roman and Freestyle wrestling. He has frustrated opponents with his patient style of fighting which utilizes quick footwork to strike and then evade opponents. He is also fights with a capable counter fighting style which he has used effectively against over aggressive fighters.
Shogun’s strengths will be in the clinch and on the ground. He has shown tremendous ability to capitalize during the transitions of a fight, blending grappling and striking effectively. He has fought for championships before and will not be fazed by the pressures of a big fight. However, given that he has usually secured rather quick victories, if this fight enters later rounds, his conditioning is an unknown factor. If he can take Machida down and control him, or work knees and elbows in the clinch, he has the strength and experience to win the fight.
Machida fights effectively through great timing and controlling the range of the fight. His footwork ensures that he is rarely trapped against the cage, while his speed enables him to strike and evade his opponents. At close range he has made use of a foot sweep to drop opponents on their back or to at least disrupt them, opening further striking opportunities. Machida has been incredibly difficult for opponents to take down, and has also demonstrated patience, never forcing the fight or becoming flustered. Machida will exploit gaps in his opponents, and although he has not been into later rounds, he has shown solid conditioning in his fights.
Keys to Defeating Machida
Shogun has a difficult task as Machida has thus far shown few weaknesses in his fights. Machida’s strengths are his footwork, striking, and takedown defense. To overcome Machida’s style, Shogun will have to do several things (which are easier said than done):
- Close the range and force the clinch on Machida. This will enable Shogun to use knees and elbows on his opponent. The clinch is also physically grinding which can tire the opponent.
- Set up the take down. Machida will evade straight shots and is capable in defending the takedown in the clinch as well. Shogun will have to use effective striking to set up his shot.
- Put Machida on his back. Machida has shown great top control when fights have gone to the ground, but is relatively untested on his back. This pressure will create opportunities.
- Own the transitions. Be first to get up when the fight hits the ground. Be the one who breaks off the clinch with strikes.
- Machida has shown strong submission defense, but Shogun should look for quick submissions while transitioning positions instead of slow submission set-ups.
It remains to be seen if Shogun’s best days are behind him, or if he will bring the skill set necessary to defeat Machida. It is quite possible he will land a cutting strike leading to a doctor’s stoppage. Barring that chance, look for Lyoto Machida to successfully defend his belt by stopping Rua with strikes in the third round.
UFC 104 takes place on October 24, 2009 in Los Angeles.
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